Y2k
Crisis
GO TO: Year 2000 Web Site Listings
Y2k Situation Critically Serious
Bruce
Thompson has prepared an extensive Y2k Preparation, Protection and Survival
Kit. He says the Y2k situation is critically serious. Here is a brief
synopsis of how he believes Y2k is likely to effect you personally.
Your
local bank is controlled by a powerful mainframe computer. In all likelihood,
that computer is about to crash!
Your
local city water supply system is controlled by a powerful mainframe computer.
That computer, too, is about to go down!
Your
local and regional electric power grid is controlled by a powerful mainframe
computer. These computers, because of software design and computer chips
designed to fail, are on schedule to malfunction!
Your
local natural gas supply is controlled by a powerful mainframe computer.
You guessed it, that computer is about to crash!
Your
favorite commercial airline is controlled by a high-tech guidance system
which is in turn controlled by a powerful mainframe computer. That computer
won't make it either!
Your
brokerage firm is controlled by a powerful mainframe computer, which keeps
track of all of your stock, mutual fund and other investment accounts. You
can kiss that computer goodbye (and quite possibly the information it containsyour
investment records!
Your
local hospital's intensive care unit, neonatal unit, X-ray equipment, CT
scanners, patient-record databases, blood bank dating systems, and prescription
dispensing systems are all controlled by programmed computer chips, millions
of which are programmed incorrectly. In all likelihood, those computers
won't work after 1999!
Your
local police department's emergency 911 system is controlled by a powerful
mainframe computer. In all likelihood, that computer is about to crash!
Your
local telephone company is controlled by a powerful mainframe computer.
Will is work after 1999? Unlikely!
Every
major retail store in your town (your local Wal-Mart, your local J.C. Penney,
your local Sears, your local Home Depot, your grocery store, etc.) stocks
goods that are brought in by railroad. Today, old-fashioned manual switching
yards no longer exist. Instead, the nation's railways are controlled by
mainframe computers. These systems, too, are programmed not to work after
1999!
I
urge each of you to carefully consider spending at least $300 for basic
emergency preparations immediately. By acting now, even in a small
way, you will have provided yourself with the most valuable of all crisis
commodities: the ability to think clearly and not to panic when the crisis
hits. Here are my four basic, most important, panic-prevention recommendations.
They should cost as little as $300, depending upon the size of your family.
1.
Water in containersDon't count
on your municipal water company to be Y2k compliant. Many analysts believe
public utilities, including water companies, will fail, or at least suffer
from sporadic failures in which contaminated water could be released into
public water supplies. I highly recommend five gallon rigid plastic jugs
for water storage, which are about $6 each at discount stores such as Wal-Mart.
Each jug should be filled with clean water now, and add 1/2 teaspoon of
ordinary unscented bleach in each job to prevent bacterial growth. The rule
of thumb for water storage is one gallon per person per day. (You can supplement
your water storage with water from your hot water tank.) Two weeks of water
for four people is 56 gallons, or about 11 jugs. If you are on a low budget,
use 2 liter pop bottles (ask your friends to save them for youwe're talking
over a hundred bottles here). Before filling, rinse them with a diluted
bleach solution. Buy several gallons of bleach.
2.
Sleeping bags for every member of the familyThere is every likelihood other public utilities will fail too,
at least for short periods of time as the crisis unfolds. This can mean
no gas, and no electricity for heating. Be sure to get sleeping bags suitable
for sleeping indoors without heat during the coldest season in your area.
Think January! Some military surplus bags are an excellent value.
3.
Basic food for two weeksSupermarket
shelves could be stripped bare within 72 hours if public panic ensues, so
make sure you have at least two weeks worth of food stored at a minimum.
I suggest rice, beans, noodles, oil, salt, vitamin C, instant potato flakes,
sugar, and hot cereal. If you stick to the basics, you can cover this with
about $100. A few extra jars of peanut butter and jam would be popular for
children. A case of tuna on sale is cost-effective even in the best of times.
Don't buy truly delicious tidbits for emergency use unless our family's
self-control is greater than ours, or you won't have any left for the times
you need it most.
4.
Essential light and communicationThe
power grid is extremely vulnerable to Y2k-related disruptions, so be sure
to have alternative sources of light and communications. Candles are the
most reliable, cost-effective, and easy to store emergency lighting. Long-lasting
votive candles are best. Also, store a good supply of matches, sealed with
their striking strip in canning jars. Disposable lighters are a good value,
too. A flashlight and a portable radio are vital in an emergency. Batteries
should be kept in the freezer for long-term storage. A generator (along
with fuel) should be among your final preparations. Diesel generators are
long-lasting and the fuel is not as dangerous to store as gasoline. I personally
like Kubota diesel generators. They are not inexpensive, but because they
are well made, somewhat portable, and very efficient, I found them to be
an excellent value.
Additionally,
be sure to keep enough money (cash) on hand to pay for your personal and
family necessities for at least two months. Remember, it is highly likely
you will not be able to make banking transactionsat least for a whileevn
if the crisis turns out to be a mild one. I suggest stashing away some cash
for daily necessities, as well as an "alternative" currency (in
case the paper money system collapses) such as pre-1965 "junk silver"
dimes which are 90% silver, readily accepted, and easily portable.
Editor's
Note: Bruce Thompson has assembled
an extensive and eye-opening Y2k Preparation, Protection and Survival
Kit. It is available for $199 from WAVE Publications, P.O. Box 84902,
Phoenix, AZ 85071 or call 1-800-528-0559.
USA
Today reports a House panel gave
the federal government a "D" grade Wednesday for its efforts to
fix the Year 2000 computer problem, predicting more than one-third of the
most important systems won't be fixed in time. It also predicted the government
will spend $6.3 billion on the problem. The Justice, Health and Human Services,
Energy, State and Education departments and the Agency for International
Development all earned an "F".
Federal Government's Y2k Status
Franklin
Sanders, The Money-changer: "Here are the new figures from the federal
government's Y2k status report. Remember, they grade themselves, the easy
code gets fixed first, and the branches are trying to be compliant by March
31, 1999.
So,
in other words, things don't seem to be going that well.
The
good news is the Social Security Administration is 87% completed, but if
1% of the 63 million monthly recipients don't receive their checks on time
that will be 630,000 phone calls. Also 60% of Social Security recipients'
main source of financial support comes from their checks.
The
Defense Department and its 3800 critical systems is only at 27%, the Transportation
Department (FAA included) is at 11% and the Treasury Department (IRS) is
at 44%.
Source: U.S. Federal Government's Quarterly Report on Y2k Readiness.
Source: Franklin Sanders, editor, The Moneychanger, P.O. Box 341753, Memphis, TN 38184, 1 year, 12 issues, 10 silver dollars or F$95.
Y2k Could Trigger A Bad Recession
Nick
Chase, The Contrarian's View: "Why am I concerned about Y2k? Because
my own computer programming experience, and my contacts within the industry
tell me that it is a serious problem. By itself, I think Y2k could trigger
a bad recession in the U.S., similar to the 1974-75 recession. but when
you take into consideration the psychological shift from the current public
mood of economic near-euphoria and stock market mania that Y2k will trigger,
plus the fact that the rest of the world is a few months to several years
behind the U.S. in eradicating the Y2k bug from its systems, we could see
the onset of a worldwide depression.
The
most disturbing thing I've seen about Y2k is the enormous discrepancy between
what the programmers who are actually fixing the computer systems are saying
about what will happen in 2000, and what upper levels of management and
government officials are saying about it. The managers and officials say
the systems will, for the most part, be fixed in time. The programmers are
saying, now waythere isn't enough time left, nor are there enough programmers
with the right experience, to fix all the systems. Management should decide
which of its computers are critical to staying in business, fix those, and
forget the rest, the programmers say."
Source:
Nick Chase, editor, The Contrarian's
View, 132 Moreland St., Worcester, MA 01609, 1 year, 11 issues, $39.
Energy Utilities: Year 2000 Ready
Roger
Conrad, editor of the Utility Forecaster, reports that next to financial
services companies, energy utilities are the industry furthest along in
dealing with the Year 2000 computer bug.
"In
fact, most knowledgeable sources believe the majority of potential threats
to the nation's energy, telecom and water supply will be headed off long
before we ring in the new century.
The
bad news: According to legal experts, any glitches that occur could trigger
a wave of lawsuits against utilities that could ultimately cost four to
five times the price of fixing the problem in the first place.
Unlike
major storms, Year 2000-triggered outages are unlikely to be considered
by the courts as "acts of God," particularly given the fact that
the upcoming day of reckoning has been widely known for several years. Utilities
could be held responsible for everything from meat spoilage to looting.
The
only real defense for investors against Year 2000 lawsuits is to get an
idea of what their companies are doing to avoid potential bugs," says
Conrad.
Each
issue of the Utility Forecaster features a "How They Rate" table
which gives Buy/Sell advice, Safety Rating, Yield, Phone, Comments, Performance
and Y2k Budgets for 93 Electric Utilities, 35 Natural Gas Utilities, 18
Natural Resource Utilities, 28 Communication Utilities, and 14 Water Utilities.
"Companies
with a budget are likely closer to solutions than those that don't have
one." says Conrad. "The Securities and Exchange Commission will
be requiring far more extensive reporting of Year 2000 remedy projects in
third quarter 10-Qs.
If
you own companies that don't seem to be getting prepared, don't panic. There's
still time to act and many of today's slowpokes could emerge with the best
solutions." Source: The Utility Forecaster, 1750 Old Meadow
Rd., Ste. 301, McLean, VA 22102, 1 yr./$129.
Let's Be Cautious, Not Panicked
Phil
Springer, editor of The Retirement Letter is one of the last guys
to be running around yelling "The sky is falling." "But there's
no denying that the Year 2000 computer glitch, or "bug" as some
call it, will have a significant impact on world commerce around the turn
of the century," says Springer.
Here's
Springer's advice on how to prepare for the possible problems this computer
glitch will cause.
"The
biggest risks involve antiquated computer systems of organizations that
are financially strapped and/or still in denial about the problem. And while
solid, well-managed operations can fix their own systems, it's impossible
to fully control exposure to external Y2k problems.
Take
the following steps so you'll stay personally and financially secure:
1.
Keep a long-term investment perspective; buy and hold only high-quality
companies. The major impact from Y2k likely will ebb by February 2000. Excellent
investment opportunities are sure to develop in stocks that have been unjustifiably
depressed by Y2k. We'll jump on these as they arise, in the meanwhile, stick
with the world's leading companies. These are the most likely to have the
management and financial resources to minimize their Y2k risks. We have
an entire portfolio of them!
2.
Be sure your financial, health-care and all important records are up to
date and filed in your personal storage as 2000 approaches. Major banks,
brokerage firms and insurance companies generally should be well prepared.
But many smaller financial-services and health-care operations may not be.
Get hard copies in case you need to establish a records trail. I also recommend
that you withdraw a few weeks' spending money from your bank before New
Year's Eve 1999, as a cautionary measure, should commerce be disrupted.
3.
Check your personal computer. If made after mid-1955, odds are it will handle
the date change. Most older computers will show the date as 1900, but can
be reset manually. In some cases, you'll need a "BIOS" upgrade
(available in most major computer stores). Also check that the software
you're using or buying is Y2k compliant.
4.
If possible, avoid planes and hospitals on and immediately after January
1, 2000. The Federal Aviation Administration uses outmoded systems for air
traffic control, and most Y2k experts doubt it will be fail-proof. The health-care
industry tends to have less efficient and more fragmented information technology
(IT) systems than those in many other sectors. Thus, the task of fixing
critical systems is more complex in this industry than in most." Source:
The Retirement Letter, 7811 Montrose Rd., Potomac, MD 20854, 1 yr./$87.
The
inevitable capital-spending boom...
Patrick
McKeough, The Successful Investor takes a less extreme view of the
Y2k dangers than some consultants and software designers.
"When
everybody knows about a coming problem, we all take steps to head it off
in any way that threatens us. That includes people who work for or own Y2k-vulnerable
companies," states McKeough.
"Y2k will be a costly and troublesome problem for
some businesses. It will be an even bigger problem for many government agencies
and educational organizations. These organizations were pioneers in computerization
when government spending was ballooning in the 1960s and 1970s. Now they
are stuck with these so-called `legacy systems.' Because of budget cutbacks,
they have to keep them running long beyond their intended lifespans. There
probably aren't enough COBOL programmers alive today to fix all the old
computer systems in time for the turn of the century. But this gives users
one more incentive to switch to a new system, on top of the faster speed,
expanded capabilities and other advantages of upgrading. This simple fact
may help spur a capital-spending boom these next few years. But that's what
you'd expect anyway, as we move into the boom phase of the economic cycle.
... and the inevitable stock promotions
Lots
of junior companies now promote themselves as Y2k saviours. On average,
their prospects are little better than what you get with penny mines in
a penny mining boom. In our newsletter, we have identified a couple
of aggressive junior companies that stand to gain from Y2k-inspired problems.
But most conservative investors are better off in well-established firms
like IBM (a new buy) and Microsoft (one of our first recommendations).
International
Business Machines (NYSE IBM $135
SI Rating: Above-average) is both the largest and best-known computer company
in the world. Its reputation stresses reliability and service, rather than
low cost; as the saying goes, "Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM".
The urgency of Y2k problems makes customers less inclined to choose low-cost
solutions that could fail or take longer than expected.
IBM
ran into financial difficulties early in this decade, partly because it
failed to position itself to profit from growth in low-cost personal and
small-business computers. In 1993, it lost $0.03 a share (all figures including
share price in U.S. dollars). Profit snapped back to $2.46 in 1994, and
went on to $6.01 last year. IBM earned $2.56 a share in the first half of
1998, down from $2.59 a year earlier, but second-half deliveries should
leave it with full year profits of $6.40 or so. Earnings could rise by $1
more next year.
Revenues
crept up from $62.7 billion in 1993 to $78.5 billion in 1997. Last year,
IBM spent 6.2% of its $85-a-share sales on research. It writes off research
outlays as a current expense, so it is more profitable than it looks. In
August, the company introduced an enhanced version of its AS/400 mainframe
computer, for use in demanding applications such as carrying out secure
transactions over the Internet. The company made a recent advance in the
use of copper in computer chips, and this could one day bring a substantial
payoff. IBM's $0.88 dividend yields 0.7%, and the stock trades for around
21.0 times the $6.40 or so it is likely to make this year. In view of its
safety and prospects, that's cheap. IBM is a Buy.
Microsoft
Corp. (Nasdaq MSFT $113 SI Rating:
Highest Quality) is ridiculously expensive almost any way you look at it,
except when you take its past growth and future growth prospects into account.
The
company is the world's biggest publisher of software, including the Windows
operating system that runs a majority of the world's personal and small-business
computers. Larger businesses use Windows NT on their desktop machine. In
addition, Microsoft's business, Internet and graphics programs are the best,
or among the best, in the field. The company's industry dominance has attracted
the attention of the U.S. Justice Department, and 20 state anti-trust authorities,
who contend that it competes unfairly. Microsoft says these legal actions
won't have a serious impact on its finances, and we are inclined to agree.
Microsoft's
profits rose from $0.58 a share in fiscal 1995 (year end June 30) to $1.78
in fiscal 1998. Sales in those years rose from $5.94 billion to $14.48 billion.
The stock now trades at 52.6 times the $2.15 or so that the company is likely
to earn per share in the current fiscal year, on sales of $17.5 billion.
For that matter, it trades at 16.7 times the $6.75 in per share sales that
it's likely to do in the current year. Microsoft pays no dividends. But,
it has virtually no debt, and it spent 16.9% of sales on research last year.
Only
a few companies ever deserve prices like these, but Microsoft is one. It
will gain doubly from Y2k. Some users will replace old systems with networks
of desktop machines using Windows 98 or NT. Other companies will dump relatively
new desktop computers when they update to deal with Y2k. This will drive
prices of second-hand computers way down, perhaps to as low as $50 to $100.
This
will balloon the home computer market and open up vast new demand for Microsoft
programs.
Microsoft's
high price in relation to earnings leaves it open to a 20% to 40% drop at
any time. But, as we've said all along, Microsoft has always seemed expensive,
ever since it first sold shares to the public in 1986 at pennies each (adjusted
for stock splits).
Microsoft
is still a Buy for long-term gains."
Source: The Successful Investor, 6021 Yonge St., Ste. 977, Toronto,
Ontario M2M 3W2, Canada, 1 yr./$99.
Will Your Mutual Fund Be Ready?
Writing
in Mutual Funds Magazine, Clint Willis asks "Will your mutual
funds be able to process transactions in January 2000? Some are ready, but
others haven't even started to address the problems," say Willis.
"For
the data-intensive fund industry and its shareholders, the prospect of major
computer breakdowns is appalling. Brokerage firms might not be able to process
funds' buy and sell orders. Fund sponsors wouldn't be able to access, or
properly maintain, shareholders records. Asset transfers, redemptions, and
distribution payments would be impossible.
Then
there's the potential impact of so-called Y2k problems (Y stands for Year
and 2k is computer geek for 2,000) on funds' investments. Even if a fund
family and its vendors are "Y2k compliant," the companies whose
stocks they buy may not be.
An
SEC survey disclosed that 85% of investment advisers and investment companies
are planning, or are already taking steps, to address the Y2k issue. Of
course, that means 15 out of every 100 firms are not.
Don't
get caught holding the bag. Here are some steps to take:
Your
first step, therefore, is to call or write your funds now about their plans
for the Year 2000. Most sponsors are making efforts to disclose their Y2k
plans to shareholders through newsletters, bulletins, and web sites. For
example, Scudder, upon request, sends shareholders a one-page letter detailing
its Y2k strategy. Crabbe Huson's web site has a section devoted to the Y2k
issue.
In
some cases, fund materials will tell you what you need to know. In others,
you'll need to make a phone call to get answers to these questions:
What
are you doing to protect me from Y2k problems? At a minimum, a company should
review and update its software code to make it Y2k compliant, and then test
the code with vendors, such as brokerage firms.
Are
your portfolio managers investigating a company's Y2k plans before they
invest shareholders' money in its securities?
How
far along are your preparations? "Large financial services companies
rely heavily on data, so they are well ahead of other firms in their Y2k
preparations," notes Tom Oleson, research director at International
Data Corporation (IDC), a technology industry research firm in San Jose,
California.
But
some are much further ahead than others.
"I'm
not worried about Y2k in New York," says attorney Rob Helm. "But
I question how prepared companies are in markets like Kuala Lampur or Russia
or Asia or Latin America."
Eventually,
of course, Y2k problems will be resolved. In the meantime, be prepared for
bugs. Anyone counting on making a big cash withdrawal from a mutual fund
in early January 2000, for example, may want to do it a few days earlier
just in case, or have a contingency plan, "Companies will fix the things
that need to be fixed the most," says Dick Heimon, research manager
at International Data Corp., a technology industry research firm. "But
shareholders will have to live with the fact that not everything will be
ready." Source: Mutual Funds Magazine, 2200 SW 10th St., Deerfield
Beach, FL 33442, 1yr./$14.97.
"Governmental
agencies assure us that all is well. The Y2k problem "is being handled."
But that's a lie," says Bert Dohmen, editor of Bert Dohmen's Wellington
Letter.
"The
Federal Reserve has just announced that it will boost currency inventories
by $50-$100 billion next year. You see, when the banks close because their
computers aren't working, the economy will need cash.
However,
a Fed spokesman assures us that "we actually believe ATMs will work.
This is precautionary."
Of
course, we believe him. They will print a $100 billion of extra currency
for the heck of it.
The
Federal Reserve also has other contingency plans. Do you get the impression
that they don't believe that the problem is "being handled?"
I
know people who have seriously studied this matter. They have spoken to
CEOs of large utility companies and financial institutions. The unofficial
word is that they hope to be testing the fixes "by late next year."
But that is much too late.
I
advise: start making your contingency plans now. Have plenty of cash available.
Have a generator available to handle electrical outages. Especially have
a freezer or refrigerator connected to it. Have drinking water available.
And have gasoline, as the filling stations may stop working.
Nationwide
I remember a satellite outage a few months ago. It was just one satellite.
But you could not buy gasoline at numerous gasoline stations with a credit
card, because the credit card verification system used the satellite. I
had to drive to seven different stations before I found one that was on
a different system.
We're
in an age where everything depends on technology. No one has yet been able
to fully size up the problem. If you don't know how to measure the problem,
how can you possibly claim to be able to fix it?
But
the biggest problem is not the software, it's embedded chips. There are
100s of millions. They don't know which will work, and which won't. Plan
for the worst." Source: Bert Dohmen's Wellington Letter, 1132
Bishop St., Ste. 1500, Honolulu, HI 96813, 1 yr./$395.
GAO: Serious Implications for Public Health & Safety
Dr.
Richard Appel, editor Financial Insights, reports that "new
information continues to be made public that attests to the difficulties
we will experience after January 1, 2000. The General Accounting Office
(GAO) stated that the U.S. Agriculture Department "will have a great
deal of difficulty" preparing for Y2k. Their recent report admits to
an estimated 80% of the task being incomplete. They then state that it could
cause serious implications for public health, safety and certain activities,
such as the dissemination of food at home and for export.
A
recent Medicare memo stated that recipients will have to pay an additional
$570 million in co-payments due to Y2k. They are having problems while they
repair their programs to make them Year 2000 compliant. It still remains
to be seen if they will correct their systems on time. Even if they are
successful their effort may be wasted because the Financial Management Services
(FMS) may not be capable of delivering the money. The FMS distributes the
actual checks and wires which pay Social Security recipients as well as
those for various other government agencies. The possibility of the FMS
continuing their duties normally remains remote, due to their poor level
of readiness." Source: Financial Insights, P.O. Box 793-Z, Oakhurst,
NJ 07755, 1 yr./$135.
John
Lyke, The Lyke Report: "As a precaution against possible nationwide
computer failures affecting banks when Jan. 1, 2000 rolls around, the Federal
Reserve will increase its $150 billion inventory of paper money to $200
billion. The Fed believes bank computers will work, but wants the extra
cash as a hedge against less confident people hoarding their money."
Source: The Lyke Report, P.O. Box 290, Glenview, IL 60025, 1 yr./$89.
Y2k Transportation Progress Report
Howard
Ruff, The Ruff Times recently published a 24-page Y2k Crisis
Special Report. He devotes a column, The Y2k Journal, in his monthly
newsletter to the Y2k crisis.
"Senator Bob Bennett (R-Utah) released the findings
from a survey by the Y2k subcommittee, which he chairs.
Three
out of every five major airlines, railroads and shipping companies have
not even figured out how big their Y2k problems arelet alone managed to
fix them.
They
asked 32 major transportation companies some simple questions. Despite numerous
call-backs, only 16 responded, which Bennett says shows the rest may be
embarrassed over their lack of progress.
Among
those who did respond, 62% said they haven't even evaluated their Y2k problems.
The experts say this should have happened by June, 1977more than a year
agoto ensure repairs before the Year 2000 deadline.
Bennett
told the hearing, "I am concerned that the transportation sector as
a whole may not be able to transition through the millennium without major
disruptions."
"If
tomorrow were the Year 2000, the airline industry would not be ready."
While
that may not mean airplanes would crash:
"Critical
systems such as aircraft maintenance, passenger ticketing and reservations
systems could fail and cause reduced capacity, flight delays, cancellations
and customer discords," said Bennett.
"Airport
runway lighting systems, firefighting equipment, building- and jetway-security
systems, parking systems, or even the Texas pipeline that supplies jet fuelcould
cause closure of some of our busiest airports."
"The
data also suggests trucking companies, ships, mass transit systems, and
even traffic light systems might face serious disruptions."
Administrator
Jane Garvey commented that "aviation safety will not be compromised
on January 1, 2000 or any other day," and her agency is "working
to ensure air traffic control systems are Y2k compliant."
Delta's
Chief Information Officer says: "Delta is working to become Y2k compliant
as quickly as possible. There can be no assurances, however, that the company's
internal systems and equipment of those third parties on which Delta relies
will be Y2k compliant by Year 2000. Let's hope it's not too little, too
late."
Ruff
published the "cream of the crop" Y2k Web sites that appeared
in the September issue of the Bull & Bear. The listings are available
on the Bull & Bear's Web site www.thebullandbear.com.
Source:
The Ruff Times, 2250 West Center
St., Ste D, Springville, UT 84663, 1 yr./$149.
GO TO: Year 2000 Web Site Listings
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