WHEN 2 K?
WHEN 2 K?
By Eric S. Hadik
INSIIDE TRACK Trading
"In
one hour your doom has come!"
"In
one hour such great wealth has been brought to ruin!"
"In
one hour she has been brought to ruin"
Revelation 18:10, 17, 19**
(** New International Version 1986)
One
of the most important factors in a successful campaign trade is landmarks.
When a trade is entered and has begun to move in an anticipated direction,
a trader needs to have levels of confirmation along the way. This is for
two primary reasons:
1.
Reinforcement to the prevailing
trend (a psychological support mechanism).
2.
The ability to trail profit-stops
in order to lock in open profits if the trend begins to fail to meet expectations
(a financial support mechanism).
This
principle is also true in all types of prognostication. I have explained
how I use this technique even with my approach to forecasts for earth instability
(earthquakes & volcanoes).
If
an ongoing pattern or repetition of earthquakes has pinpointed a future
time frame of which to be acutely aware, I look for confirming events at
geometric intervals leading into that time frame.
This
is the case with my focus on the first 45 days of 1999 as a time of great
seismic risk particularly in Japan. It is also a time of risk for the Japanese
stock market, regardless of earth cycles. However, my reason for discussing
this principle is not to delve into earth cycles. Instead, it is to further
the discussion on the Millennium Bug.
There
is a plethora of information available on the specifics of this problem
and a multitude of opinions regarding it. I have my own thoughts but am
reserving them while I build a framework around them (much as a lawyer builds
a case).
In
the preceding articles, I laid out at least 10 reasons for `Why 2 K?'. Ironically,
only one had to do with the Millennium Bug. The other 9 were a diverse array
of items and events that focus an unprecedented amount of anxious attention
on the next 12-18 months. The Millennium Bug is only one in a string of
potential setbacks over the next 12 months. It is quickly diverting most
attention to it, which could be a good thing or a bad one. How so?
If
all attention and resources are devoted to this one issue, it leaves many
other areas vulnerable. It also could give a false sense of security if
the public believes the problem is solved or contained.
Many
other areas of risk will appear in the coming months, most of which are
not directly related to the Y2K Millennium Bug. Just as in a boxing match,
these events could be the jabs and knockdowns setting the stage for a devastating
Y2K-O!
Now
I want to examine the `When' of `Why 2 K'. What follows are several key
dates between November 1998 and May 2000 that should provide vital clues
as to whether heightened fears are valid or overblown. These dates are not
just related to the Millennium Bug either. They are related to any or all
of the 10 topics discussed over the last two months some directly and some
indirectly.
I
am assuming that anyone even remotely familiar with the Millennium Bug has
enough common sense to know they do not have until January 1, 2000 to prepare
for this event. That is like saying you have until game time to begin practicing
for the Super Bowl.
If
there truly is going to be a breakdown in the workings of our society, as
a growing number of people believe, then preparing should be done in stages.
However, just as in any trade, waiting too long or for ideal circumstances
carries with it the risk of being left behind.
[NOTE:
When I discuss this topic I am not attempting to convey an alarmist mentality
nor a complacent one. This is a topic that has to be treated individually
just like every potential trade. Numerous factors, like potential reward
versus risk, personal convictions, mobility & available capital factor
into decisions regarding this issue. I am only intending to provide a practical
approach to examining and interpreting the events that lead into this.]
These
stages should be separated by the following dates. Each time frame should
result in either a heightened, neutral or reduced state of preparation depending
on whether events support, oppose or have no impact on the idea of a coming
crisis.
With
that said, here are several crucial dates, why they are important, and what
to watch for to validate or invalidate the significance of 2000 AD:
1.
November 17/18, 1998
This
one is history and marked the first (Leonids) in a series of meteor storms
leading into the new millennium. This one passed without event and gave
the Optimists an early lead (see scoreboard & recap at www.insiidetrack.com).
Alarmists struck out on this at bat, but have repeat performances scheduled
for August 8-15, 1999 (Perseits) & November 18, 1999 (Leonids again).
The Leonids had the potential to severely disrupt satellite transmissions
and wreak havoc on today's technology. That same potential will again exist
at an even more precarious time in November 1999.
2.
January 1, 1999
January
1st is the first stage of conversion to the Euro. The results of this massive
computer/banking conversion could provide a precursor to the granddaddy
of all computer/banking conversionsthe Millennium Bug. If the Euro conversion
goes smoothly, complacency could take hold. On the flipside, if glitches
appear (even after 1/01/99) it could be disastrous. Since this programming
challenge pales by comparison to the Millennium Bug, problems with this
endeavor will assure even the most complacent bystander that the Millennium
Bug deserves greater attention.
A
lesser consideration in January 1999 is the insurance industry that is tied
to annuities and annual renewals, etc. As `00' starts showing up frequently
in records and calculations, the potential for problems increases exponentially.
3.
March 1999
Magnetic
fields of Earth & Sun align. According to Fox News (taken from ECR website
excerpt):
"Scientists
predict intense solar storms during the peak of the solar cycle between
now and the year 2004. These may cause power grid outages, radio interference
and satellite failure. The first major alignment of the magnetic fields
of the Earth and the sun will happen in March of 1999."
As
just stated, this is more likely to take the form of a `jab'. However, it
could reveal problems or vulnerabilities not recognized previously. It could
affect satellites (as so many other events in the next 6-18 months) and/or
also trigger earth disturbances like the one(s) perceived possible in mid-January.
4.
March 31/April 1, 1999
Fiscal
year-end/beginning for Japan, New York state & Canada. This is being
hailed as the first real test of what type of glitches can arrive when year-end
dating rolls to `00'
5.
April 12-16, 1999
S&P/DJIA
cycles that could set a low following a sharp decline or a secondary high
between two substantial declines. This cycle should become clear by late-February
as far as what to expect from it. If it turns out to be a secondary high,
this would show that the ensuing 3-month time frame will likely hold several
problems. That could be when a meltdown in stocks takes hold further complicating
major corporations' attempts to complete work on the Millennium Bug (since
plummeting stock values will place added pressure on CEO's to cut corners
while `putting on a happy face' regarding their Y2K progress).
Also
in AprilElections in Turkey (Magog). This will likely result in the next
move to Islam rule after continued rebuffing by Europe. Turkey just suffered
a government collapse and trouble continues to brew within (between the
military & Islamics) and without (between Europe & Turkey as Italy
refuses to turn over the Kurd leader sought by Turkey).
Turkey
is likely to see another move towards fundamentalism and this time the military
might have trouble suppressing it particularly when the next event takes
place. As I have pointed out for years, Turkey is one of the most crucial
links between Islam and the West. It is slowly turning away from the West
and this election could accelerate the process.
6.
May 5 & 17, 1999
Possible
Declaration of Palestinian statehood. As the fateful Jewish year 5760 approaches
(see Cycle Of Time V), Yasser Arafat's undaunted intention to declare a
Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital will light the fuse for
an all-out Middle East War. Recent developments in Syria/Lebanon & in
Turkey should play into this. This event is unique in that it is exactly
1 year prior to the planetary alignment of May 5, 2000. It is also exactly
1 year following the terrible-trio of May 1998 (all of which could affect
Israel & the Middle East in the coming years)
1. Indian & subsequent
Pakistani nuclear tests (allowing Israel's Islamic enemies to declare `we
have the bomb')
2. Newt Gingrich's standing
in Jerusalem and declaring it the `eternal capital of Israel' (thems fightin'
words) and
3. The PanAmSat debacle
where a satellite twisted and knocked out 90% of the pagers in the US, as
well as gas station ATMs, cell phones, etc.
May
17, 1999 is when early elections have been called in Israel. If the PLO
and Hamas want another land giveaway, tensions will likely subside until
after this date. If tensions escalate, Israelis might elect an even more
conservative leader (perhaps Ariel Sharon) and widen the schism between
the two.
7.
June 30/July 1, 1999
More
fiscal year rollovers.
8.
August 22, 1999
GPS
Rollback. When the dating on the Global Positioning Satellite system rolls
back to 0, it could be a parallel to what banks, businesses & the Defense
Department will encounter 132 days later.
9.
September 11-20 , 1999
Start
of Jewish Year 5760 & Yom Kippur (the same time that Arabs surprise-attacked
Israel in 1973). See Cycle of Time V for discussion on 5760.
10.
October 1, 1999
Fiscal
year 2000 begins in US.
11.
November 18, 1999
Leonids
return. Expect complacency following the lack of problems during the recent
November 1998 storm. This will be perceived as another non-event-in-the-making
and could leave satellite operators unprepared for a true disruption at
absolutely the worst possible time.
As
I have stated over and over for the last several years, I see the entire
satellite network and the coming international space station as a type of
resurrected Tower of Babel. If this is true, natural and man-made catastrophes
could await this second major attempt at `reaching into the heavens'.
[It
is also intriguing that the US gave critical classified satellite data to
the Red Chinese and word just came out the China is working on a major laser
system that would be able to destroy satellites hundreds of miles above
the earth. What better way to wage a future war than to first knock out
the enemy's most vital means of communication, spying & strategic troop
monitoring.]
12.
???????, 1999
Sorry,
but the timing for this one is a mystery. However, new evidence each day
reveals that it is likely to be much sooner rather than later. #12 will
be one of the great destabilizers of the decade to come and the timing of
it is crucial depending on whether a hard winter has already passed or is
just beginning.
In
case you have not guessed it yet, #12 is the ultimate passing (physical
or political) of Boris Yeltsin. It was just revealed that he has had a few
additional heart attacks in 1998 (in addition to those already known) and
is now having trouble fighting off other ailments like pneumonia. A human
heart can only take so much and his has had more than its share. In addition,
at least 4-5 other aspiring leaders are calling for Yeltsin's removal. His
days are numbered. The only question is how small is that number.
From
a cyclic standpoint, the period from December 1998 - December 1999 marks
several cycles of transition. 12/25/98 marked a 7-year period of completion
since Mikhail Gorbachev resigned and the Soviet flag was removed from the
Kremlin flagpole.
Boris
Yeltsin is also a symbol of completion himself, being the 7th leader (first
6 were Secretary-Generals of Communist Party while Soviet Union was in existence)
since the USSR was founded in 1922 (Stalin, Kruschev, Brezhnev, Andropov,
Chernenko & Gorbachev).
1998
marked the completion of the 4th 19-year (Cycle of Time) cycle since 1922
as well.
1999
is a 7-year period of completion since the 11-member Commonwealth of Independent
States was founded. Is it not intriguing that 11 of the former 15 Soviet
republics chose to join the CIS while 11 of the possible 15 European nations
chose to join the first phase of Monetary Union 7 years later? Is there
a correlation?
Another
possibility The conviction or resignation of President Clinton. This is
unlikely until AFTER the magic date of January 20, 1999 (12 PM EST or later)
since that would rob Mr. Gore of 4 years of potential term. According to
the 22nd Amendment of the Constitution of the United States:
Section
I. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice,
and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President,
for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected
President shall be elected to office of the President more than once
It
is foolish to even think that a resignation would take place before that
date since it would mark the difference between 6 and 10 potential years
of Mr. Gore's presidency. In other words, if the Democrats or the vice-president
had any plans of encouraging the President to step aside to prevent disgracing
the overall party and its chances in 2000, you can be certain they will
not do it until after 12:00 noon on 1/20/99. I am not saying it has to happen,
only that it is such a remote possibility BEFORE that key date. Remember,
in the markets and in all of life:
Timing is Everything!
Overall,
it seems likely that some problems will occur early in the year but that
they will be manageable. As 1999 wears on, time runs out, and tensions around
the world rise, each round of problems will take on a larger role and have
a greater impact on computerized society. In keeping with one of the two
aforementioned metaphors, the next several months could also be like a prolonged
boxing match where each `little' problem or glitch sets up society for the
final blow and a Y2K-O!
Editor's
Note: Eric S. Hadik is President
of INSIIDE TRACK Trading and editor of INSIIDE TRACK monthly newsletter
& hotline, Weekly Re-Lay fax service and Tech Tip Reference Library.
His work has been utilized by top-twenty banks and multi-national precious
metals firms... as well as thousands of individual traders. Free samples
of these publications are available by calling 630-375-7320, faxing requests
to 630-585-5701 or e-mailing them to INSIIDE@aol.com. Visit us at www.insiidetrack.com.
Mail to INSIIDE TRACK Trading, P.O. Box 2252, Naperville, IL 60567.
|| TABLE OF CONTENTS || Bull & Bear Newsletter Digest || Bull &
Bear Reporter Featured Companies || Monetary Digest |
| The Bull & Bear Financial Report Copyright 1999 | All Rights Reserved Reproduction in whole or part is strictly prohibited without prior written permision NOTE: The Bull & Bear Financial Report does not itself endorse or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of information, statements or opinionsexpressed by any individuals or organizations posted on this site PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER |
Web Site Designed & Maintained by Estrada Design & Communications in association with THE BULL & BEAR INTERNET DIVISION |