What Might Be
the Future
of the Internet?
What Might Be
the Future
of the Internet?
Last night I thought over a thousand
plans, but this morning I went my old way.
Chinese proverb
by James Dines
The Dines Letter
The
Internet is like a new central-nervous system for the "new universe,"
collapsing time, space and costs in commerce, into markets that were hitherto
unreachable, via frictionless capitalism. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos says, "This
is the Kitty Hawk era of electronic commerce."
There
will be frightening economic upheavals, dislocations and layoffs, possibly
even the end of the era of jobs requiring a radical economic restructuring
of society in the next century, another topic we covered in my book, Mass
Psychology (page 140). This is a monumental sea change as individuals
and businesses reinvent themselves, even while unique new markets will spring
up. But it is crucial to keep in mind that the increasing boost in across-the-board-efficiencies
and savings will lower prices but will not be a "deflation."
Deflation is a contracting money supply that usually results in lower
prices, but not always, an important factor in understanding future gold
trends.
For
the first time the Internet will be a Mass medium and so will profoundly
revolutionize political elections. Around 40 percent of America's likely
voters use e-mail, and 67 percent use a computer regularly at home, work,
or school.*
We
also look for the Web to go wireless, in "connected information appliances,"
palm-sized and voice-activated. Plug it into a wall device and your robot
will be connected to all the knowledge of humanity, with its culture only
a mouse click away from the Louvre, the U.S. Library of Congress and hordes
of other institutions that will unleash a soaring humanity in the new millennium
incomparably above the Industrial Revolution, the Gutenberg printing press
and even the wheel. The world will be connected cheaply, quickly and totally,
for the first time in human history, a "Singularity" of Einsteinian
proportions. Cybermerchants will set up cybercommunities, such as E*Trade,
eToys Inc., Garden Escape, 1-800-Flowers, and even a place where new parents
can for help.**
Indeed,
the "click here" economy will feature a mouse even bigger than
Disney's Mickey.
Internet
radio can now bring shows from anywhere in the world to those who are living
far from home, or wish to practice a foreign language. For a guide to leading
international and public broadcasters, see the World Radio Network (www.wrn.org).
All you need is an Internet connection, a PC wired for sound and a RealPlayer
(www.real.com software) that could be downloaded free from the Web.
Whole
swaths of businesses are in danger of obsolescence such as stock exchangesprices
of "seats" on exchanges are already plummetingbut new communities
of companies will spring up. Such as the Automotive Network Exchange, open
to anyone who wants to sell to auto manufacturers, prepared to do some heavily-competitive
bidding, thus turning car parts into commodities that could be bought and
sold at auction. But the most profound changes will occur when businesses
offer free gifts in order to provide an entree to other businesses; for
example, giving away a personal computer free, provided that the customer
buys customizing software and other servicesmuch the way Gillette gave away
free razors in order to position blade sales. Recipients of the free computer
would be asked a series of questions: for example, if you like chess they
would offer a panoply of chess-related items, perhaps at a discount, and
then sell your data to direct marketers.***
By
"cyber real estate" we mean the Internet pipeline between the
consumer and the web site, leveraging their positions. For example, the
PC manufacturer could install something that steers you to a particular
vendor with which it has a "deal"or it could be at the operating
system, browser, ISP, host or portal. Each choke point will take a slice
out for their "real estate" as a form of cyber rent to give vendors
a first shot at visitors. It is crucial to lock up positions on this cyber
real estate for your corporation as early as possible, before rents go through
the roof. (If it weren't for the "last minute," nothing would
ever get done!)
Another
aspect of the future is the end of the Age of Loneliness of people living
distant from one other, replaced by a newer and more profound loneliness
in that, au fond, we are mayflies all. No longer limited geographically,
or by the price of phone calls and travel, Netizens will eventually be connected
to the whole world. Although, this raises security fears, since crackpots
and weirdos will also be online. Beware of new meetings when you know nothing
except a stranger's e-mail addresses, obtain and verify phone numbers, street
addresses and consider an Internet escrow service which would for a fee
act as a security middleman, holding payment for an item until both seller
and purchaser were satisfied with a deal.****
The
business of checking the integrity of businesses will be redefined on the
Internet, starting with a Better Business Bureau. Now the American Institute
of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) offers a certification called "CPA
Web Trust" verifying the credibility of a company, an agreement to
ask permission before disclosing private information, and that it had fully
disclosed its business practices on the site. TRIL's entry in this area
is Network Associates (NETA), which specializes in encryption, firewalls,
intrusion detection, etc.
Beware
of pyramid schemes, offers to improve credit reports and plans to work at
home. A "new universe" will bring with it new crimes. For example,
rogue programs could be sent as attachments to e-mail, so never open an
e-mail attachment from a stranger. New attackers trick your computer into
launching the rogue code when mail is retrieved, without requiring you to
open the attachment, because e-mail programs do not read very long file
names (the flaw does not exist in the e-mail programs used by America Online,
or in Eudora). But Libertarian privacy advocates will be concerned about
merchants verifying whether an amount is in your checking account.
Netrepreneurs
will get the same advice from us we have given every year; if you want to
get rich, when you encounter an Internet facet that annoys you and figure
out a way to fix it. Find a need, fill it and go public, (And donate 1 percent
to our Research Department for the inspiration!)
Cybermerchants
will be absolutely required to ship not only fast, but at Webspeedsor else.
Instant gratification will be deemed far too slow, so supply-chain management
must be updated urgently.
Cyberwar
is a frightening aspect of the Internet, especially "weapons of mass
disruption." Terrorist sects with little money but a few computers
could use widely-available information to overhear military communications,
disrupt air-traffic controls to cause crashes, make satellites shut down,
or even turn our own missiles on us. A 70-page report from the Center for
Strategic and International Studies warned about "IW" (Information
Warfare) and "SID" (Strategic Information Dominance) where only
$10 million and thirty computer wizards "could bring the United States
to its knees."
* For additional political cyberdialogue pull up these websites: www.politicsonline.com, www.campaignwebreview.com, www.lwv.org (League of Women Voters), www.dnet.org (The Democracy Network), www.electnet.org, and www.calvoter.org
**megamach.portage.net/~rborelli/dads.html, www.babycenter.com, www.manslife.com, and fathermag.com
*** Veni. Vidi. Visa. (We came. We saw. We went shopping.)
**** Check out www.iescrow.com or www.tradesafe.com
Editor's Note: James
Dines is editor of The Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belvedere, CA 94920,
one of the oldest and most respected stock market newsletter of its type
in the world. Dines recently published a blockbuster 34-page 1999 Annual
Forecast Issue. Dines is the only newsletter editor that has
been very bullish on the Internet group for several years and he has rewarded
his subscribers very handsomelyto say the least with his stock selections.
Dines devotes a full 12 pages of his Annual Forecast Issue to the Internet.
Articles include, The InternetHow to Make the Killing of a Lifetime;
Mergers; Trends; Is It Too Late To Buy Internets, and When Should We Sell?
In his Which Internet Stocks To Buy, Dines has selected his "Internet
universe." Stocks that he expects will become a leader in each industry.
"This is probably the opportunity of a lifetime to make a killing in
the stock market," says Dines. Also included in the Annual Forecast
issue is TDL's latest on Gold, The Coming Currency Crisis, Seasonalities,
Annual Features on Bonds, Interest Rates, DJ Transport Average, DJ Utility
Average, DJIA, Market Analysis and more.
Subscribe to the Dines Letter
for 1 year, 20 issues, $195; 6 month-trial is available for $115 and a Look-See
3-Issue Trial is only $49 ($69 overseas). Whatever subscription you decide
upon you will receive the 1999 Annual Forecast Issue absolutely FREE.
Write to the above address or phone 1-800-84-LUCKY.
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