The Dines Letter's
Seasonalities: September
by James Dines, editor
The Dines Letter
1.
Stocks: Since 1961 there have been 16 rising Septembers, 21
down, and one neutral, for a 55.3% bearish bias. However, when the DJI ends
higher in September, it usually means that the entire subsequent fourth
quarter remains bullish. Eleven of the last sixteen bullish Septembers (75%)
preceded bullish fourth quarters; there is no comparable correlation with
Septembers that have declined and nobody knows why not.
Our
Research Department also reports that if the market declines in the four-day
week following Labor Day (starting September 7th this year), one should
postpone buying for one month; but if there is a gain, buy because the market
will probably be higher a month later. This was true in 1993, 1995, 1996
and 1997, when the market posted a gain in the week after Labor Day and
continued to move higher for the succeeding months. On the other hand, in
1994 and 1998, there was a loss in the week after Labor Day, so the other
side of the TDL Seasonality was activatedpostpone buying for one monthwhich
would have worked splendidly in 1994 because the DJI dropped 5.2% that October
and last year October made a new low since Labor Day. Buying could have
been done nearer the subsequent Bottom. Let's wait and see.
2.
Golds: Septembers are a favorable bet for gold shares (DIGSA)
at 58% bullish: since 1968 there have been 18 up 12 down, and one neutral.
Silver shares (DISSA) have been bullish (56%) the last 18 years, with 10
up and 8 down. The fourth quarter is a good time to start Accumulating precious-metals
shares in anticipation of the extremely positive Seasonalities of the first
quarter, when precious-metals shares usually rise, by Dinesism #9: The Dines'
Rule of Gold Seasonality (DIRGS)in the Mass Psychology book.
Editor's
Note: James Dines is editor of
The Dines Letter, one of the very longest-surviving and most respected
financial newsleters in the world, 1 year, 20 issues, $195. A 3-issue trial
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