Novembers,
the opposite of Octobers?
James
Dines: "DJI: According to Dinesism #29, DINPIVOT, the market
direction of Octobers is usually reversed in Novembers. Since October
1999 will most likely be a downer, percentages favor a November rise.
For
the record, October rallies in 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1969, 1973, 1974,
1982, 1984, 1988, 1991, 1993 and 1994, were all followed by fulcral declines
in November. October declines in 1967, 1970, 1971, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1981,
1983, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995 and 1997 were followed by November pivots to
the upside. All in all, since 1960, there were a total of 26 correct DINPIVOT
reversals, so it worked an impressive 68% of the time.
Long
ago we baptized October "The Bearkiller Month," even though it
is widely described in the press as a bearish month - we disagree. For the
record, 1993 was the first time October's Seasonality was widely disseminated
outside TDL by the press and media to The Hive, but they nonetheless erroneously
conclude that October is a bearish month. Novembers generally have an upside
bias; since 1961 there have been 24 rising Novembers (63% of the time),
13 downers, and 1 neutral. This October started at 10,273; if the DJI ends
lower than that on the 29th we should consider the enhanced probability
of a November rally.
Gold: November's Seasonalities reveal a neutral picture
for the Dines Gold Stock Average (DIGSA) and the Dines Silver Stock Average
(DISSA) in preparation for their traditional Jan-Feb upturns, according
to Dinesism #9, the Dines Rule of Gold Seasonality (DIGSA). In the last
31 Novembers DIGSA rose 16 times and fell 15. DISSA rose 12 time, declined
17 (55%), with 2 neutral years (in 1981 and 1993)."
Editor's Note: THE Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belvedere, CA 94920. 1 year, 20
issues, 195.
