TDL's Seasonalities:
Novembers, The Opposite of Octobers?
by James Dines, editor, The Dines Letter
DJI: According to Dinesism #29, DINPIVOT the market direction of Octobers is usually reversed in Novembers. As of 18 Oct the DJI was already down 9.8% for the month, hence percentages favor a November rise.
For the record, October rallies in 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1969, 1973, 1974, 1982, 1984, 1988, 1991, 1993 and 1994, were all followed by fulcral declines in Novembers. October declines in 1967, 1970, 1971, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995 and 1997 were followed by November pivots to the upside. Both 1998 and 1999 were ambiguous as both October and November rose, but even then there were sharp declines in both mid-Octobers that were recouped by rallies later that month. All in all, since 1960, there were a total of 26 correct DINPIVOT reversals, so this Seasonality worked an impressive 67% of the time (72% including both ambiguities).
Long ago we baptized October "The Bearkiller Month," even though it is widely described in the press as a bearish month we disagree. For the record, 1993 was the first time October's Seasonality was widely disseminated outside TDL by the press and media to The Hive, but they nonetheless still erroneously concluded that October is a bearish month rather than a time for reversals. Novembers generally have an upside bias: since 1961 there have been 25 rising Novembers (64% of the time), 13 downers, and 1 neutral.
Gold: November's Seasonalities reveal a neutral picture for the Dines Gold Stock Average (DIGSA) and the Dines Silver Stock Average (DISSA) in preparation for their traditional Jan-Feb upturns, according to Dinesism #9, the Dines Rule of Gold Seasonality (DIRGS). In the last 32 Novembers DIGSA rose 16 times and fell 16.
Editor's Note: James Dines is editor of The Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belvedere, CA 94920, 1 year, 20 issues, $$195.
