TDL's
Seasonalities: September
By James Dines, editor
The Dines Letter
1.
Stocks: Based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI),
since 1961 there have been 14 rising Septembers and 26 downers,
for a 65% bearish bias. Taking it back farther, in the last 50
years, Septembers show the highest average monthly declines for
both the S&P 500 and the DJI than any other month of the
year.
Labor Day: Our Research
Department also reports that if the market declines in the four-day
week following Labor Day (starting September 4th this year),
one should postpone buying for one month. Although this did not
work last year, it would have worked splendidly in 1994, 1998
and 1999 when postponed buying provided buyers with prices near
the bottom in all three Octobers. On the other hand, if there
is a gain in that four-day week, buy because the market will
probably keep going higher. This was true in 1993, 1995, 1996
and 1997, when the market posted a gain the week after Labor
Day and continued to move higher in subsequent months.
2. Golds: Septembers
are favorable for gold shares in DIGSA (the Dines Gold Stock
Average). Since 1968 there have been 19 up, 13 down, and one
neutral. Silver shares in DISSA (the Dines Silver Stock Average)
have been somewhat bullish in the last 20 years, with 11 up and
9 down. The fourth quarter is often a good time to start accumulating
precious-metals shares in anticipation of the positive Seasonalities
of the first quarter, when gold and silver shares usually rise.
By Dinesism #9: The Dines Rules of Gold Seasonality (DIRGS) see
the Mass Psychology book (page 327) for more.
Editor's Note: James
Dines is editor of The Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belvedere,
CA 94920, 1 year, 17 issues, $195. Visit the Web site at www.dinesletter.com.
The Bull & Bear highly recommends James Dines book, Mass
Psychology, 366 pgs, $59. TradersPressBookStores.com, the
largest investment book store on the Internet has Mass Psychology
listed for $39 for a limited time.
