TDL's
Seasonalities: Novembers, The Opposite of Octobers?
by James Dines, editor
The Dines Letter
A)
DJI: According to Dinesism #29, DINPIVOT the market direction
of Octobers is usually reversed in Novembers. As of 15 Oct
02 the DJI had risen 9% for the month; if the month finishes
higher the percentages would shift to a November decline.
For the record, October
rallies in 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1969, 1973, 1974, 1982, 1984,
1988, 1991, 1993, 1994, and 2000, were all followed by fulcral
declines in Novembers. October declines in 1967, 1970, 1971,
1977, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995 and 1997
were followed by November pivots to the upside. 1998, 1999 and
2001 were ambiguous as both October and November rose. All
in all, since 1960, there were a total of 27 correct DINPIVOT
reversals out of 41, so this Seasonality worked two-thirds of
the time.
Decades ago we baptized
October "The Bear-Killer Month." For the record, 1993
was the first time October's Seasonality was widely disseminated
outside TDL by the press and media to The Hive, but they nonetheless
still erroneously concluded that Octobers were bearish months
rather than a time for reversals. Novembers generally have an
upside bias: since 1961 there have been 26 rising Novembers,
14 downers, and 1 neutral. Taking it further back, to 1950, Novembers
in fact rank as the third best-performing month for the S&P
500, and fourth best for the DJI.
B) Gold: November's
Seasonalities reveal no useful percentage for the Dines Gold
Stock Average (DIGSA) but is bearish for the Dines Silver Stock
Average (DISSA), in preparation for their traditional Jan-Feb
upturns, according to Dinesism #9, the Dines Rule of Gold Seasonality
(DIRGS). In the last 34 Novembers DIGSA rose 18 times and fell
16. DISSA rose 13 times and declined 19 times with 2 neutral
years.
Editor's Note: James
Dines is editor of The Dines Letter, PO Box 22, Belvedere,
CA 94920, 1 year, 17 issues, $195. Visit the web site at www.dinesletter.com.
