by James Dines
The Dines Letter
"Stocks:
Based on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJI), there have
been 14 rising Septembers and 28 downers since 1961, for a 2-to-1
bearish bias. Taking both the S&P and DJI back farther, in
the last 53 years, Septembers show more average monthly declines
than any other month of the year.
Labor Day: Our Research
Department also reports that if the market declines in the four-day
week following Labor Day (starting September 2 this year), one
should postpone buying for one month. It worked splendidly in
1994, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002, when postponed buying
provided buyers with prices near the bottom in all six Octobers.
On the other hand, if there is a gain in that four-day week,
buy because the market will probably keep going higher. This
was true in 1993, 1995, 1996 and 1997, when the market posted
a gain in the week after Labor Day and continued to rise in subsequent
months.
Golds: Septembers
are favorable for the gold shares as measured by DIGSA (the Dines
Gold Stock Average). Since 1968 there have been 20 up, 14 down,
and one neutral. Silver shares in DISSA (the Dines Silver Stock
Average) have been less bullish the last 22 years, with 12 up
and 10 down. The fourth quarter is often a good time to start
accumulating precious-metals shares in anticipation of the positive
Seasonalities of the first quarter, when gold and silver shares
usually rise, By Dinesism #9: the Dines Rule of Gold Seasonality
(DIRGS)."
Editor's Note:
James Dines is editor of The Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belvedere,
CA 94920. 1 year, 17 issues, $195.
