Dines' Seasonalities: March

By James Dines, editor
The Dines Letter

       1. March stocks are usually either neutral or modestly higher, which frequently evolves into a market Top either in April or May. In our Research Department's count of the 54 years since 1950, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in the month of March rose 35 times and declined 19 times. There have been fewer declines in recent years. These stats are comparable with the S&P 500, which ranks March since 1950 as the fifth best-performing month. March however, gets better for the S&P 500: taking the last thirteen odd-numbered years, there were 10 risers and only 3 downers - we try to use this in 2005. The count for even-numbered years was 8 up and 5 down. (April Tops were reached in 1966, 1971, 1981 and 1987. May Tops were reached in 1965, 1969, 1972, 1982, 1992, and 2001.)
        Nasdaq packs a lot of bearishness in March: It ranks as the fifth-worst month since 1971 with 21 up and 12 downs. March however is at its worst for the Nasdaq in election years, averaging a 2.5% drop. Caution therefore is warranted in March 2004.
        TDL research additionally concluded that March is a pivotal month, often moving in the opposite direction from that of February, or just leaving off in preparation for a decline starting around April or May. March 1997 and 2002 for example exemplified this when the DJI plunged after an up February. March 2002 and 2003 also followed our "rule," having risen after a down February. The rule did not work in 2001, with both February and March lower, so no Technical Indicator is perfect.
        2. The Dines Gold Stock Average (DIGSA) rose 19 times out of the last 36 months of March, and declined 16 times (neutral once), for a scarcely-bullish ratio of 54%. The Dines Silver Stock Average (DISSA) rose 21 times out of the last 36 months of March, declined 14 times and was neutral once, for a bullish ratio of 60%. March Seasonalities for the precious-metals shares are an even bet for gold, but bullish for silver.
        Editor's Note: James Dines is editor of The Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belvedere, CA 94920, 1 year, 17 issues, $195. www.dinesletter.com.