The Dines' Letter Seasonalities: April

By James Dines
The Dines Letter

       DJI: 1) Based on the Dow-Jones Industrials, April has been the top performing month in the past 55 years, up 34 times and down 21 times, averaging a 1.9% rise for the month.
       2). Our research additionally reveals that April has been a month with a pivotal reversal of the March trend 69% of the time (29 out of 42 years) since 1963, and at least a semi-important Top has been reached in virtually every April or May since then. April was notably a pivot month to the upside in 1994, 1997, 2001, 2002, and 2003, coinciding with our very important "Buy" signals on 5 Apr 94 and 14 Apr 97. (April 1995 and 1999 were not pivotal months, and simply continued the DJI's bullish drive.) April churning has frequently led to declines in May or June in preparation for the seasonal "summer rally," as was the case in 1984-86, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1998, 2000, and 2004.
       3). In 29 of the past 43 years the first two weeks of April ended more positively for the DJI than the final two weeks (67% of the time). The average percentage rise from 1 April to 15 April was 1.34%; the average for the period 16 April to 30 April was 0.36%. The S&P 500, when subjected to the same analysis, corroborated those results. Since 1955, the April 1 to 15 rise averaged 1.03% but from April 16 to 30 it was only 0.32%. This predicts better market action in the first half of April than the last half.
       Gold & Silver: The Dines Gold Stock Average (DIGSA) in the last 37 Aprils has risen 16 times, declined 20 times, and was neutral once. The Dines Silver Stock Average (DISSA) has risen 17 times and declined 20 in the past 37 Aprils. Thus, TDL's April Seasonalities have been slightly bearish for both gold and silver 56% and 54% of the time respectively."
       Editor's Note: James Dines is the editor of The Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belevedere, CA 94920, 1 year, 17 issues, $195.