The Dines Letter's Seasonalities:

Novembers, The opposite of Octobers?

By James Dines
The Dines Letter

       A) DJI: According to DINPIVOT (Dinesism #29) the market direction of Octobers is usually reversed in Novembers. This fact is one of our "little secrets" that we annually share with our TDLrs. As of 25 October 07 the DJI is still on a Downtrend; if the month finishes lower the percentages would shift to a November rise, into the traditional year-end rally.
        For the record, October rallies in 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1969, 1973, 1974, 1982, 1984, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1994, 2000 and 2003, were all followed by fulcral declines in Novembers. October declines were followed by November pivots to the upside, in 1967, 1970, 1971, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2004 and 2005. 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2002 sported no pivots since both Octobers and Novembers went up. As for 2006, while an up November followed the strong October, November was nonetheless marred by 148 and 288 point declines in its first and third week respectively. All in all, since 1960, there were a total of 30 correct DINPIVOT reversals out of 47, so this Seasonality worked two-thirds of the time (64%).
        Decades ago we baptized October "The Bear-Killer Month." For the record, 1993 was the first time October's Seasonality was widely disseminated outside TDL by the press and media to The Hive, but they nonetheless still erroneously concluded that Octobers were bearish months rather than a time for reversals.
        Novembers generally have an upside bias: over two-thirds of the time since 1950 there have been 39 rising Novembers and 18 downers. Novembers in fact rank as the best performing month for the S&P 500, and third best for the DJI.
        B) Gold: November's Seasonalities reveal no useful percentage for the Dines Gold Stock Average (DIGSA) but is bearish for the Dines Silver Stock Average (DISSA), in preparation for their traditional Jan-Feb upturns, according to Dinesism #9, the Dines Rule of Gold Seasonality (DIRGS). In the last 39 Novembers DIGSA rose 23 times and fell 16 - somewhat bullish (59%). DISSA rose 17 times, and declined 20 times, with 2 neutral years - somewhat bearish (54%). But golds and silvers are very Oversold, and the Mass is pessimistic on them, so they should deliver a good year-end rally; in any event, percentages are bullish for early 2008.
        Editor's Note: James Dines is editor of The Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belvedere, CA 94920. 1 year, 17 issues, $195. New subscribers to The Dines Letter can receive his big Forecast Issue, plus the last two issues of The Dines Letter free. To subscribe call 1-800-84-LUCKY or order online at www.dinesletter.com.