The Dines Letter Seasonalities: Februarys

By James Dines
The Dines Letter

        DJI: The DJI's action in Februarys has been somewhat bullish since 1950, with 33 rising Februarys and 25 declining, averaging a gain of 0.2%. While there is little DJI seasonal tendency for Februarys, they have often followed whatever the Major trend has been, currently down as per the DJI chart in our 2008 Annual Forecast Issue, but rallying since our 23 Jan 08 "Buy" signal.
        S&P 500: Based on the S&P 500 however, in an unusual departure from the DJI, Februarys rank the second-worst month, averaging a decline of -0.1%, over 58 years, notwithstanding a slightly-positive record of 31 up years vs 27 downers.
        Incidentally, investors now have more reasons to be bearish this year. The first five days of January's early warning system ended down, the month of January will most likely end lower and the 18 Dec 07 has already been broken - on the first trading day of 2008.
        Golds: In the last 40 Februarys, our Research Department counted 22 rises, 16 declines and two neutrals in the Dines Gold Stock Average (DIGSA), indicating that Februarys have been seasonally bullish (up 58%) for gold shares, as per Dinesism #9, the Dines Rule of Gold Seasonality (DIRGS). The Dines Silver Stock Average (DISSA) rose 25 times, declined 14 times and was neutral once, so silver-mining shares have also been seasonally bullish (up 64%) in Februarys.
        Editor's Note: James Dines is editor of The Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belvedere, CA 94920, 1 year, 14 issues, $295, www.dinesletter.com.