By James Dines
The Dines Letter
A. DJI: 1) Based on the Dow-Jones Industrials, April has been the top performing month in the past 58 years, up 36 times and down 22 times, averaging a 1.8% rise for the month.
2) Our research additionally reveals that April has been a month with a pivotal reversal of the March trend 69% of the time (31 out of 45 years) since 1963, and at least a semi-important Top has been reached in virtually every April or May since then. April was notably a pivot month to the upside in 1994, 1997, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2007, coinciding with our very important "Buy" signals on 5 Apr 94, 14 Apr 97, 18 April 05 two days before rock bottom for the year and on 20 Apr 2007 after which the DJI soared 1,280 points to its Top. (April 1995 and 1999 were not pivot months, and simply continued the DJI's bullish drive). April churning has frequently led to declines in May or June in preparation for the seasonal "summer rally," as was the case in 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2004, and 2006.
3) In 29 of the past 46 years the first two weeks of April ended more positively for the DJI than the two weeks (63% of the time). The average percentage rise from 1 April to 15 April was 1.22%; the average for the period 16 April to 30 April was 0.49%. The S&P 500, when subjected to the same analysis, corroborated those results. Since 1955, the April 1 to 15 rise averaged 0.95% but from April 16 to 30 it was only 0.40%. This particular Technical Indicator predicts better market action in the first half of April than the last half.
B. Gold & Silver: The Dines Gold Stock Average (DIGSA) in the last 40 Aprils has risen 17 times, decline 22 times, and was neutral once. The Dines Silver Stock Average (DISSA) has risen 18 times and declined 22 in the past 40 Aprils. Thus, April offers no statistically significant odds for us to play."
Editor's Note: James Dines is editor of The Dines Letter, P.O. Box 22, Belvedere, CA 94920. 1 year, 14 issues, $295. www.dinesletter.com.
