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November Kicks
Off the “Best Months”

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down -22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was Nasdaq’s second worst month on record – only October 1987 was worse, observes Jeff Hirsch, editor Almanac Investor newsletter.

“November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for Nasdaq,” says Hirsch. He adds, “small caps come into favor during November, buy don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-three DJIA (since 1950) and Nasdaq (since 1971) month. November is second best for S&P 500 (since 1950) and Russell 2000 (since 1979). November is the Russell 1000’s best month (since 1979).”

 

“In midterm years,” Hirsch says, “November’s market prowess is relatively unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 13 of the last 17 midterm years since 1950 with an average gain of 2.5%. S&P 500 has also been up in 13 of the past 17 midterm years, gaining an average 2.6%. Small-caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 6 of the past 9 midterm years, averaging 3.5%. The only real blemish in the November midterm-year record is 1974 (DJIA -7.0%, bear market ended in December).”

Editor’s Note: Jeff Hirsch is the editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 and Almanac Investor eNewsletter. Hirsch uses historical patterns and market seasonality in conjunction with fundamental and technical analysis to reduce risk and increase returns. Sign up today for a FREE 7-Day Trial to Almanac Investor to read the latest market analysis and trading recommendations.

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