|
THE FINANCIAL REPORT CARD
P.O. Box 7173, Kensington, CT, 06037.
Monthly, 1 year, $129.95.
Dr. Robert Valuk: "We see the global economy slowing in 2005 (with the exception of roaring China) and the markets may continue their frustrating trading range. We see a decline in early 2005, but the trading range could last to the summer doldrums and then sell off."
GLOBAL DYNAMICS LETTER
19 Adams Point. Rd., Barrington, RI 02806.
Expect post-election good mood
R. K. Matthews: "Expect a post-election generally good mood in the market until oil or 'missed-the-street-by-a-penny' jitters set in again. Expect the 'soft spot' in the 'economic recovery' to linger. Ideally, we look for Q4, '04 and Q1 '05 to set the high end of the trading range we expect to be around for some time to come.
We are now at 55% in stocks. One must choose the average that reflects one's exposure risk. For us, that is the Nasdaq and S&P 500. We look to play 10-20% moves."
INVESTECH RESEARCH MARKET ANALYST
2472 Birch Glen, Whitefish, MT 59937.
1 year, 17 issues, $295.
Optimistic on further gains
James Stack: "Our technical models remain decisively in the bullish camp. Market breadth or participation is solid, while leadership is not signaling any bear market "distribution." Even under this climate, we cannot guarantee sunny weather through 2005. But we're optimistic about further market gains in the 4th quarter of this year."
Henning: The Stock Market Curmudgeon
Thomas Henning: "The Dollar is breaking down, the currencies are strong and gold has closed on the upside. The bonds are in a failure rally with internals sure to move into bearish divergences on any strength.
Closes below Spot Bonds 110, Cash Dollar below 83, Dow below 10,300, Transports below 3560 would suggest that fess-up day has arrived. Given these closes, a potential deluge could evolve.
The smell of blood is in the air."
STOCK TRADER'S ALMANAC INVESTOR
184 Central Ave, Old Tappan, NJ 07675.
Monthly, 1 year, $295.
Russell 2000 - Seasonality:
November to May. Average return: 12.5%
Jeffrey Hirsch: "We like iShares Russell 2000 (IWM). This ETF mirrors the Russell 2000. This is a relatively long hold with a seven month bullish run ending in May and an average return of 12.5%. There are obviously no top holdings since the Russell 2K is an unweighted average (each stock represents approximately a 0.2% of total assets), but it is interesting to note the top five sectors represented in the index: Financial Services (24.3%), Consumer Discretionary (17.9%), Tech (12.4%), Health Care (12.1%) and Materials (10.1%). Buy Limit: 114.00 Stop Loss: 10.50 Target Price: 128.25 Automatic Sell Point: 141.47."
THE MAJOR TRENDS
Published Monthly for Clients of Sadoff Investment Management LLC
250 W Coventry Ct., Ste. 109, Milwaukee, WI 53217. www.sadoffinvestments.com.
Ronald Sadoff: "Next year, 2005, ends in a "5". Fifteen of the last seventeen "5" years (since 1835) have been profitable. Both of the losing years occurred during the 19th Century. During the 1800s the average gain was 3% during these "5" years. During the twentieth century the average gain for the Dow was a spectacular 34%. The worst year was +10%, the best year was +81%.
2005 is a post election year. For the four year presidential cycle, the post election years have produced the poorest results with an annual average gain of just over one percent.
Also for the post election years the declining years (23) have slightly outpaced the advancing years (19) with one unchanged year.
And now for the good news: The post election years ending in "5" have all been profitable except one: 1865 which was -8%."
JERRY FAVORS ANALYSIS
7748 Chancel Dr., 43235.
Monthly, 1 year, $190.
Jerry Favors: "Our work suggests that higher prices are coming over the next few weeks, and possibly the next two months before the current bull market reaches its peak. At this point we believe a final high is most likely between here and January 10, 2005. While we do not have specific upside performance for where that high should occur just yet, for now it still appears most likely that the high should come in near or above 11,000."
|
