GROWTH STOCK OUTLOOK
P.O. Box 15381, Chevy Chase, MD 20825.
1 year, 24 issues, $235.

Pirates, thieves, and counterfeiters

       Charles Allmon: "Recently I heard an astounding trade figure mentioned on an evening news broadcast. If the U.S. could cut off counterfeit CDs and DVDs from China, our trade imbalance would be substantially reduced. Sales of legitimate videos and CDs in China are minuscule as pirates and thieves whip out copies and flood the market within 72 hours of release of a hot new movie of hit album.
       Anything from the U.S., Japan, or Europe is fair game. They even copied the design of a new GM auto, then had the gall to put it on the market with great fanfare. Piracy and thievery apparently are imbedded in the national psyche.
       I repeat an earlier GSO comment by a high Chinese official concerning conflict with the U.S.: "By the year 2050, the average Chinese family will have an American houseboy."

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Stock Trader's ALMANAC INVESTOR NEWSLETTER
79 Main St., Ste. 3, Nyack, NY 10960.
Monthly, 1 year, $295.

Market's bias turns bullish

       Jeffrey Hirsch: "As the holiday season begins, the market's bias turns bullish most years in November which leads the best three-month span of the year. Ranked #2 on the S&P 500 and #3 on the Dow Jones Industrial since 1950 - and third for Nasdaq since 1971 - November begins the Best Six Months for the Dow and S&P, and the Best Eight Months for Nasdaq.
       Small caps come into favor during November but they truly outpace their big cap brethren starting the last two weeks of the year. Small stocks generally continue to soar through the early part of the year. In years past small-cap domination existed primarily in January and was known as the "January Effect" - it is now more like a November-to-February effect. This is discussed in detail in the just-released Stock Trader's Almanac 2006.

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THE PERSONAL CAPITALIST
6911 S 66th E Ave., Ste. 301, Tulsa, OK 74133.
1 year, 24 issues, $195.

We expect good returns in 06

       Sean Christian: "We continue to target a move to DJIA 12,000 or higher, although the move was delayed much later than we had anticipated. We are now hopeful that the advance has finally begun. The economy is doing extremely well despite the various hits of natural disasters and higher than expected inflation due to rapidly rising energy prices. We feel that the economy is moving toward a major boom that will propel corporate earnings higher, making stocks quite inexpensive at today's price levels. This is quite bullish.
       Seasonally, we are entering a reasonably strong period. We project above average Christmas sales resulting in increased market strength. We feel that our Model Portfolio is very well positioned to benefit from the next bull market leg. We believe that there is tremendous opportunity available to investors at current prices and expect a strong market for the foreseeable future.
       Much of our portfolio gains in 2005 can be attributed to an emphasis on energy shares as well as some unique special-situation stocks and a few gold-mining shares."

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THE YAMAMOTO FORECAST
P.O. Box 573, Kahului, HI 96733.
Monthly, 1 year, $350.

Stocks are in a vulnerable situation

       Irwin Yamamoto: "First, it was record energy prices. Next came Hurricane Katrina. Then another hurricane. So one would assume that the economy deserved a breather. Think again. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan seems to be relentless in his pursuit to keep ahead of inflation.
       The president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, Richard W. Fisher, warned how inflation hovered at the high end of the Fed's comfort zone. To say the least, this statement didn't make the financial community feel good. The words shook up investors.
       The normal method of the Federal Reserve is to engage in "Fed-speak." In other words, say something - and then contradict it with another phrase. The reason behind this practice is to avoid revealing the intent of the Fed just in case it has to quickly reverse the course of action.
       Sometimes the Fed chief Alan Greenspan will send message to the markets so that they won't be totally caught off guard by an upcoming move. A sudden disruption could prove too much for Wall Street to handle. And the consequences could filter down to the economy. At this stage, traders are trying to figure out if this is one of those occasions.
       Usually, Mr. Greenspan is vague about his plans. Not lately. The man hasn't minced any words. Basically, he's worried about two things, inflation and the real estate bubble. Is this a smoke screen? Maybe the statements from him and the other Federal Reserve members are for the sole purpose of sending a warning to the market. The point being, interest rates must go up. Whatever the reason or the agenda, the perception appears crystal clear. Rates will continue to advance higher - in regards to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The strategy will remain restrictive in scope. Furthermore, there's no light at the end of the tunnel with respect to the topic. This scenario won't be favorable for equities at all.
       Remember the market's adage, Don't fight the Fed." Well, in the short term, that wise saying applies to the market today. Based on what's coming from the mouths from various personnel of the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy will remain tight. If that's the case, stocks are in a vulnerable situation. At best, they'll be on the defensive.
       In our opinion, Alan Greenspan is orchestrating a loud message to Wall Street. Simply stated, when it pertains to fighting inflation and the real estate bubble or avoiding an economic slowdown/recession - the Fed is going to err on the side of the former. To put it another way, the risk of inflationary problems takes precedence over a slower economy. There's no Fed-speak from Greenspan. The man has spoken about his concerns about inflation on multiple times. Next were the precise comments from the Dallas Federal Reserve presidnt. If this is not an orchestration of some kind, then we don't know what is.
       Two major obstacles stand in the path of stocks. Interest rates and the economy. And on both fronts, the outlook is getting worse. More specifically, rates are rising. Also, the economy's softening. In addition, they're interrelated. The higher interest rates make the already slowing business landscape even slower.
       It's difficult picturing equities forging ahead in the face of rising rates and a decrease in economic activities. These two factors translate to lower corporate profits. When all is said and done, the bottom line of American companies dictates the direction of the stock market. The preliminary indications for future profits of Corporate America don't hold a lot of promise."

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The Peter Dag PORTFOLIO STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT
65 Lakefront Ave., Akron, OH 44319.
1 year, 24 issues, $389.

Increase exposure to stocks

       George Dagnino: "Our long-term models remain bearish. During such times it pays to be selective. The market, however, is poised for more gains until the end of the year. You should increase your exposure to stocks.
       Commodities. Commodities remain firm. Crude has declined, but I doubt this is the real peak. Gold is still strong, and gold tends to decline well ahead of most commodities. The strength of the economy is keeping commodities from falling.
       Inflation. Bad news. The personal consumption expenditures price index is up 4.2% y/y and rising. The purchasing managers price index soared, suggesting a very high percent of purchasing managers are paying higher prices. The news on inflation is going to be unfavorable in the coming months."

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THE SPEAR REPORT
45 Wintonbury Rd., Bloomfield, CT 06002.
1 year, 50 issues, $297.

Market is forecasting
Good enough 2006

       Gregory Spear: "A decline in energy prices, continued strength in the asset (real estate) economy and a global deflationary trend in regard to the flood of imported goods are compensating for other stresses on the economy. Thus, the market is forecasting a good enough 2006."

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THE GRANVILLE MARKET LETTER
P.O. Drawer 413006, Kansas City, MO 64141.
1 year, 46 issues, $250.

Market outlook not as
rosy as Wall Street says

       Joseph Granville: "What Wall Street does most effectively is to get you to buy stocks at the worst of times. Such a time is right now. From the fundamental point of view Wall Street tells you that the market has never looked better. From the technical point of view I am telling you that seldom has it looked worse."

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INSIIDE TRACK
P.O. Box 2252, Naperville, IL 60567.
Monthly, 1 year, $179.

Stock Indices at a crossroads

        Eric Hadik: "Stock Indices - Stock indices are at a crossroads. They have fulfilled analysis for a high in mid-2005 and possess their next important cycles around year-end.
        Interest Rates (opposite of Bond direction) - Long-term neutral-to-down trend bottoming. However, a final low in long-term rates could stretch into January 2006.'
        Gold & Silver - Long-term uptrends in Gold & Silver consolidating. A rally into April 2006 is possible.
        Dollar - Long-term trend down and projected to continue into 2008. A 6 - 12 month rebound is intact.
        Crude Oil - Long-term trend up with important cycles peaking. Multi-month consolidation expected.
        Commodities - Long-term trends mixed. A major 15-16 month Cycle Progression peaked in Sept./Oct. 2005 and should create a CRB correction into mid-2006."

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THE ALEXANDER PARIS REPORT
161 N. Clark St., Ste. 2950, Chicago, IL 60601.
Monthly, 1 year, $195.

Stock Market:
working through the transition risk

        Alexander Paris: "Since the early weeks following Katrina, during which the stock market headed significantly higher, we have been expressing concern that investors were behaving as if Katrina and Rita were net positives for the economy. Investors and strategists were excitedly talking about the rebuilding opportunities while giving only lip service to the economists who were busy reducing their forecasts for second half economic growth. They were also betting that the Fed would stop raising interest rates in the face of catastrophe. We did not have, and still do not have, any fears that the healthy underlying economy would not take the damage in stride with only a temporary moderation in growth. As we concluded above, the temporary slowing will only provide a better base for extended economic growth in 2006, with the rebuilding joined by the increased fiscal stimulation to pay for it. Our concern with the stock market was that it was facing a transition problem in the interim. Investors had to wade through a lot of bad news before it had the right to celebrate the rebuilding opportunity.
       The question is whether all or most of the bad news is now worked into stock prices and the market is ready to move ahead. We are encouraged that the direct economic impact of the storms so far is less than originally feared or it has been offset by strong trends outside the Gulf Coast. We believe that we are getting close enough to start taking a more positive position on stocks, barring news of the economic damage from the previous storms is not likely to get any worse. Investors should soon start to shift their attention to the first half of 2006 and more legitimately place their bets on the rebuilding opportunity. The increase fiscal stimulus will have its maximum effects in the first half, with the Fed likely to end its tightening phase before the first quarter is over. As with the two previous mid-cycle economic corrections and following an end to Fed tightening, the market has a good foundation for a better year in 2006. The very weak 2005 stock market, excluding energy and utility stocks, has also built a nice base for better times ahead."

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